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A General Equilibrium Analysis of Foreign and Domestic Demand Shocks Arising from Mad Cow Disease in the United States

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Author Info

  • Devadoss, Stephen
  • Holland, David W.
  • Stodick, Leroy
  • Ghosh, Joydeep
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    The discovery of the first case of mad cow disease in the United States in 2003 reverberated across the beef and cattle industry. This study employs a general equilibrium model to analyze the potential economic effects of mad cow disease on the beef, cattle, and other meat industries under three scenarios, ranging form most favorable to most pessimistic. The scenario with 90% foreign demand decline and 10% domestic demand reduction generates results consistent with the actual outcomes after the mad cow disease outbreak. Only if domestic demand declines significantly will the economic hardship in the U.S. beef and cattle industry be very large.

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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/8607
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Western Agricultural Economics Association in its journal Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

    Volume (Year): 31 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 02 (August)
    Pages:

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    Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:8607

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    Web page: http://waeaonline.org/
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    Related research

    Keywords: demand decline; economic effects; mad cow disease; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries;

    References

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    1. Reinert, Kenneth A. & Roland-Holst, David W., 1992. "Armington elasticities for United States manufacturing sectors," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 631-639, October.
    2. Kapuscinski, Cezary A. & Warr, Peter G., 1999. "Estimation of Armington elasticities: an application to the Philippines," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 257-278, April.
    3. John Gilbert, 2003. "Trade Liberalization and Employment in Developing Economies of the Americas," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 94-95, pages 155-174.
    4. Roland Herrmann & Stanley R. Thompson & Stephanie Krischik-Bautz, 2002. "Bovine spongiform encephalopathy and generic promotion of beef: An analysis for “quality from Bavaria”," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(3), pages 369-385.
    5. Scott McDonald & Deborah Roberts, 1998. "The Economy-Wide Effects of the BSE Crisis: A CGE Analysis," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3), pages 458-471.
    6. John Gilbert & Thomas Wahl, 2002. "Applied General Equilibrium Assessments of Trade Libereralisation in China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 697-731, 05.
    7. Verbeke, Wim & Ward, Ronald W., 2001. "A fresh meat almost ideal demand system incorporating negative TV press and advertising impact," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 25(2-3), pages 359-374, September.
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    Cited by:
    1. Rault, Arnaud & Krebs, Stephane, 2011. "Livestock epidemics and catastrophic risk management: State of the art and prospects on economic dynamics," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114793, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Arnaud Rault & Stéphane Krebs, 2011. "Catastrophic risk and risk management, what do we know about livestock epidemics? State of the art and prospects," Working Papers SMART - LERECO 201105, INRA UMR SMART.
    3. Thomsen, Michael R. & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Power, Gabriel J., 2009. "Volatility Surface and Skewness in Live Cattle Futures Price Distributions with Application to North American BSE Announcements," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49354, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. David Holland, 2010. "What happens when exports expand: some ideas for closure of regional computable general equilibrium models," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 439-451, October.
    5. Christine Wieck & David Holland, 2010. "The economic effect of the Canadian BSE outbreak on the US economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(8), pages 935-946.
    6. Valentina G. Bruno & Bahattin Buyuksahin & Michel A. Robe, 2013. "The Financialization of Food?," Working Papers 13-39, Bank of Canada.

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