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Hedges and Trees: Incorporating Fire Risk into Optimal Decisions in Forestry Using a No-Arbitrage Approach

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Author Info

  • Insley, Margaret
  • Lei, Manle

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of including the risk of fire in an optimal tree harvesting model at the stand level, assuming timber prices follow a mean-reverting stochastic process. The relevant partial differential equation is derived under different assumptions about hedging the risk of fire. The assumption that fire risk is fully diversifiable is contrasted with the assumption that it can be hedged with another asset. It is conjectured that the risk-neutral probability of fire exceeds the historical probability of fire, which will affect forest land valuation. An empirical example is presented for two different silvicultural regimes.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7084
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Western Agricultural Economics Association in its journal Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

Volume (Year): 32 (2007)
Issue (Month): 03 (December)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:7084

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Web page: http://waeaonline.org/
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Related research

Keywords: fire risk; forest value; hedging; jumps; no-arbitrage; optimal harvesting; Poisson process; real options; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;

References

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  1. Insley, M.C. & Wirjanto, T.S., 2010. "Contrasting two approaches in real options valuation: Contingent claims versus dynamic programming," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 157-176, April.
  2. Reed, William J., 1984. "The effects of the risk of fire on the optimal rotation of a forest," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 180-190, June.
  3. Jonathan Yoder, 2004. "Playing with Fire: Endogenous Risk in Resource Management," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(4), pages 933-948.
  4. McGough, Bruce & Plantinga, Andrew J. & Provencher, William, 2002. "The Dynamic Behavior of Efficient Timber Prices," Staff Paper Series 454, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics.
  5. Englin, Jeffrey E. & Boxall, Peter C. & Hauer, Grant, 2000. "An Empirical Examination Of Optimal Rotations In A Multiple-Use Forest In The Presence Of Fire Risk," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 25(01), July.
  6. Motoh, Tsujimura, 2004. "Optimal natural resources management under uncertainty with catastrophic risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 487-499, May.
  7. Reed, William J., 1993. "The decision to conserve or harvest old-growth forest," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 45-69, August.
  8. Margaret Insley & Kimberly Rollins, 2005. "On Solving the Multirotational Timber Harvesting Problem with Stochastic Prices: A Linear Complementarity Formulation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(3), pages 735-755.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Shan Chen & Margaret Insley, 2008. "Regime switching in stochastic models of commodity prices: An application to an optimal tree harvesting problem," Working Papers 08003, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics.
  2. Insley, M.C. & Wirjanto, T.S., 2010. "Contrasting two approaches in real options valuation: Contingent claims versus dynamic programming," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 157-176, April.
  3. Creamer, Selmin F. & Genz, Alan & Blatner, Keith A., 2012. "The Effect of Fire Risk on the Critical Harvesting Times for Pacific Northwest Douglas-Fir When Carbon Price Is Stochastic," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 41(3), December.

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