IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/jlaare/7084.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Hedges and Trees: Incorporating Fire Risk into Optimal Decisions in Forestry Using a No-Arbitrage Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Insley, Margaret
  • Lei, Manle

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of including the risk of fire in an optimal tree harvesting model at the stand level, assuming timber prices follow a mean-reverting stochastic process. The relevant partial differential equation is derived under different assumptions about hedging the risk of fire. The assumption that fire risk is fully diversifiable is contrasted with the assumption that it can be hedged with another asset. It is conjectured that the risk-neutral probability of fire exceeds the historical probability of fire, which will affect forest land valuation. An empirical example is presented for two different silvicultural regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Insley, Margaret & Lei, Manle, 2007. "Hedges and Trees: Incorporating Fire Risk into Optimal Decisions in Forestry Using a No-Arbitrage Approach," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(3), pages 1-23, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:7084
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.7084
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/7084/files/32030492.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.7084?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patrick Jaillet & Damien Lamberton & Bernard Lapeyre, 1990. "Variational inequalities and the pricing of American options," Post-Print hal-01667008, HAL.
    2. Bruce McGough & Andrew J. Plantinga & Bill Provencher, 2004. "The Dynamic Behavior of Efficient Timber Prices," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 80(1), pages 95-108.
    3. Margaret Insley & Kimberly Rollins, 2005. "On Solving the Multirotational Timber Harvesting Problem with Stochastic Prices: A Linear Complementarity Formulation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(3), pages 735-755.
    4. Thomas A. Thomson, 1992. "Optimal Forest Rotation When Stumpage Prices Follow a Diffusion Process," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 68(3), pages 329-342.
    5. Motoh, Tsujimura, 2004. "Optimal natural resources management under uncertainty with catastrophic risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 487-499, May.
    6. Gregory S. Amacher & Arun S. Malik & Robert G. Haight, 2005. "Not Getting Burned: The Importance of Fire Prevention in Forest Management," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 81(2).
    7. Jeffery D Amato & Eli M Remolona, 2003. "The credit spread puzzle," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    8. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. "The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-973, July.
    9. Reed, William J., 1984. "The effects of the risk of fire on the optimal rotation of a forest," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 180-190, June.
    10. Morck, Randall & Schwartz, Eduardo & Stangeland, David, 1989. "The Valuation of Forestry Resources under Stochastic Prices and Inventories," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(4), pages 473-487, December.
    11. Willassen, Yngve, 1998. "The stochastic rotation problem: A generalization of Faustmann's formula to stochastic forest growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 573-596, April.
    12. Insley, M.C. & Wirjanto, T.S., 2010. "Contrasting two approaches in real options valuation: Contingent claims versus dynamic programming," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 157-176, April.
    13. Reed, William J., 1993. "The decision to conserve or harvest old-growth forest," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 45-69, August.
    14. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 363-384, March.
    15. Jonathan Yoder, 2004. "Playing with Fire: Endogenous Risk in Resource Management," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(4), pages 933-948.
    16. Englin, Jeffrey E. & Boxall, Peter C. & Hauer, Grant, 2000. "An Empirical Examination Of Optimal Rotations In A Multiple-Use Forest In The Presence Of Fire Risk," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 25(1), pages 1-14, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Shan & Insley, Margaret, 2012. "Regime switching in stochastic models of commodity prices: An application to an optimal tree harvesting problem," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 201-219.
    2. Christian S. L. Crowley & Arun S. Malik & Gregory S. Amacher & Robert G. Haight, 2009. "Adjacency Externalities and Forest Fire Prevention," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 85(1), pages 162-185.
    3. Cantegril, Pierre & Paradis, Gregory & LeBel, Luc & Raulier, Frédéric, 2019. "Bioenergy production to improve value-creation potential of strategic forest management plans in mixed-wood forests of Eastern Canada," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C), pages 171-181.
    4. Work, J. & Qiu, F. & Luckert, M.K., 2016. "Examining hardwood pulp and ethanol prices for improved poplar plantations in Canada," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 9-15.
    5. Aghakazemjourabbaf, Sara & Insley, Margaret, 2021. "Leaving your tailings behind: Environmental bonds, bankruptcy and waste cleanup," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Creamer, Selmin F. & Genz, Alan & Blatner, Keith A., 2012. "The Effect of Fire Risk on the Critical Harvesting Times for Pacific Northwest Douglas-Fir When Carbon Price Is Stochastic," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 41(3), pages 1-14, December.
    7. Insley, M.C. & Wirjanto, T.S., 2010. "Contrasting two approaches in real options valuation: Contingent claims versus dynamic programming," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 157-176, April.
    8. Hildebrandt, Patrick & Knoke, Thomas, 2011. "Investment decisions under uncertainty--A methodological review on forest science studies," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, January.
    9. C. E. Dangerfield & A. E. Whalley & N. Hanley & C. A. Gilligan, 2018. "What a Difference a Stochastic Process Makes: Epidemiological-Based Real Options Models of Optimal Treatment of Disease," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 70(3), pages 691-711, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Newman, D.H., 2002. "Forestry's golden rule and the development of the optimal forest rotation literature," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 5-27.
    2. Chen, Shan & Insley, Margaret, 2012. "Regime switching in stochastic models of commodity prices: An application to an optimal tree harvesting problem," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 201-219.
    3. Insley, M.C. & Wirjanto, T.S., 2010. "Contrasting two approaches in real options valuation: Contingent claims versus dynamic programming," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 157-176, April.
    4. Chang, Sun Joseph & Zhang, Fan, 2023. "Active timber management by outsourcing stumpage price uncertainty with the American put option," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    5. Patto, João V. & Rosa, Renato, 2022. "Adapting to frequent fires: Optimal forest management revisited," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    6. Strange, Niels & Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl & Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark, 2019. "Afforestation as a real option with joint production of environmental services," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 146-156.
    7. Ben Abdallah, Skander & Lasserre, Pierre, 2016. "Asset retirement with infinitely repeated alternative replacements: Harvest age and species choice in forestry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 144-164.
    8. Manley, Bruce & Niquidet, Kurt, 2010. "What is the relevance of option pricing for forest valuation in New Zealand?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 299-307, April.
    9. Couture, Stéphane & Reynaud, Arnaud, 2011. "Forest management under fire risk when forest carbon sequestration has value," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(11), pages 2002-2011, September.
    10. Yoder, Jonathan K., 2002. "Prescribed Fire: Liability, Regulation, And Endogenous Risk," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19675, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    11. Insley, Margaret, 2002. "A Real Options Approach to the Valuation of a Forestry Investment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 471-492, November.
    12. Creamer, Selmin F. & Genz, Alan & Blatner, Keith A., 2012. "The Effect of Fire Risk on the Critical Harvesting Times for Pacific Northwest Douglas-Fir When Carbon Price Is Stochastic," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 41(3), pages 1-14, December.
    13. Hildebrandt, Patrick & Knoke, Thomas, 2011. "Investment decisions under uncertainty--A methodological review on forest science studies," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, January.
    14. Alvarez, Luis H. R. & Koskela, Erkki, 2005. "Wicksellian theory of forest rotation under interest rate variability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 529-545, March.
    15. Susaeta, Andres & Carter, Douglas R. & Chang, Sun Joseph & Adams, Damian C., 2016. "A generalized Reed model with application to wildfire risk in even-aged Southern United States pine plantations," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 60-69.
    16. Alvarez, Luis H.R. & Koskela, Erkki, 2007. "Optimal harvesting under resource stock and price uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2461-2485, July.
    17. L. Ferreira & M. Constantino & J. Borges, 2014. "A stochastic approach to optimize Maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) stand management scheduling under fire risk. An application in Portugal," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 219(1), pages 359-377, August.
    18. Ning, Zhuo & Sun, Changyou, 2017. "Forest management with wildfire risk, prescribed burning and diverse carbon policies," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 95-102.
    19. Sloggy, Matthew R. & Kling, David M. & Plantinga, Andrew J., 2020. "Measure twice, cut once: Optimal inventory and harvest under volume uncertainty and stochastic price dynamics," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    20. J. Garcia-Gonzalo & T. Pukkala & J. Borges, 2014. "Integrating fire risk in stand management scheduling. An application to Maritime pine stands in Portugal," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 219(1), pages 379-395, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:7084. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/waeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.