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Efficiency Tests Of July Kansas City Wheat Futures

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  • Kastens, Terry L.
  • Schroeder, Ted C.

Abstract

Three procedures are used to test Fama semistrong from efficiency of harvesttime price of Kansas City July wheat futures from 1947 through 1995. The three methods are (a) testing for jointly significant parameter estimates on nonfutures explanatory variables in econometric forecasting models, (b) testing the relative accuracy between model-based forecasts and using deferred futures prices as forecasts, and (c) testing for abnormal profits associated with simulated futures trading signaled by the forecasts. Kansas City July wheat futures are generally efficient. Furthermore, relative to the efficiency associated with forecasts constructed one to two months before harvest, the efficiency associated with the five- to six-month period before harvest has increased, especially since the early 1980s.

Suggested Citation

  • Kastens, Terry L. & Schroeder, Ted C., 1996. "Efficiency Tests Of July Kansas City Wheat Futures," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 21(2), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:31035
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.31035
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    Cited by:

    1. Nivens, Heather D. & Kastens, Terry L. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C., 2002. "Payoffs To Farm Management: How Important Is Crop Marketing?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 1-12, April.
    2. Nivens, Heather D. & Kastens, Terry L. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C., 2000. "Using Satellite Imagery In Kansas Crop Yield And Net Farm Income Forecasts," 2000 Conference, April 17-18 2000, Chicago, Illinois 18943, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    3. Irwin, Scott H. & Jackson, Thomas E. & Good, Darrel L., 1999. "Do Agricultural Market Advisory Services Beat The Market? Evidence From The Corn And Soybean Markets Over 1995-1997," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14789, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    4. Algieri, Bernardina & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2014. "Back to the Futures: An Assessment of Commodity Market Efficiency and Forecast Error Drivers," Discussion Papers 187159, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    5. Klumpp, Joni M. & Brorsen, B. Wade & Anderson, Kim B., 2005. "The Impact of Marketing Strategy Information on the Producer's Selling Decision," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri 19036, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    6. Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes & Hagedorn, Lewis A., 2005. "The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans over 1995-2003," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14775, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    7. Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes & Batts, Ryan M., 2006. "The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans Over 1995-2004," AgMAS Project Research Reports 37513, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    8. Siaplay, Mounir & Anderson, Kim B. & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2007. "Using Basis and Futures Prices as a Barometer in Deciding Whether to Store Grain or Not," 2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois 37575, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    9. Li, Anzhi & Dorfman, Jeffrey H., 2014. "Composite Qualitative Forecasting of Futures Prices: Using One Commodity to Help Forecast Another," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169790, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Carl R. Zulauf & Scott H. Irwin, 1998. "Market Efficiency and Marketing to Enhance Income of Crop Producers," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 20(2), pages 308-331.
    11. Vergara, Oscar & Coble, Keith H. & Hudson, Darren & Knight, Thomas O. & Patrick, George F. & Baquet, Alan E., 2005. "Target Markets for Grain and Cotton Marketing Consultants and Market Information Systems," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-17, April.
    12. Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes & Jackson, Thomas E., 2000. "Do Agricultural Market Advisory Services Beat The Market? Evidence From The Corn And Soybean Markets Over 1995-1998," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14786, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    13. Joao Martines-Filho, 2006. "The Performance of Agricultural Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(1), pages 162-181.
    14. Bernardina Algieri & Matthias Kalkuhl, 2019. "Efficiency and Forecast Performance of Commodity Futures Markets," American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Science Publications, vol. 11(1), pages 19-34, June.
    15. Jirik, Mark A. & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes & Jackson, Thomas E., 2001. "Do Agricultural Market Advisory Services Beat The Market? Evidence From The Wheat Market Over 1995-1998," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14778, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    16. Lewis T. Cunningham & B. Wade Brorsen & Kim B. Anderson & Emílio Tostão, 2008. "Gender differences in marketing styles," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 38(1), pages 1-7, January.
    17. Coble, Keith H. & Barnett, Barry J., 1999. "The Role Of Research In Producer Risk Management," Professional Papers 15803, Mississippi State University, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    18. Schroeder, Ted C. & Parcell, Joseph L. & Kastens, Terry L. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C., 1998. "Perceptions Of Marketing Strategies: Producers Versus Extension Economists," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(1), pages 1-15, July.

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