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Weather-Based Adverse Selection And The U.S. Crop Insurance Program: The Private Insurance Company Perspective

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  • Ker, Alan P.
  • McGowan, Pat

Abstract

Surprisingly, investigations of adverse selection have focused only on farmers. Conversely, this article investigates if insurance companies, not farmers, can generate excess rents from adverse selection activities. Currently political forces fashioning crop insurance as the cornerstone of U.S. agricultural policy make our analysis particularly topical. Focusing on El Nino/La Nina and winter wheat in Texas, we simulate out-of-sample reinsurance decisions during the 1978 through 1997 crop years while reflecting the realities imposed by the risk-sharing arrangement between the insurance companies and the federal government. The simulations indicate that economically and statistically significant excess rents may be garnered by insurance companies through weather-based adverse selection.

Suggested Citation

  • Ker, Alan P. & McGowan, Pat, 2000. "Weather-Based Adverse Selection And The U.S. Crop Insurance Program: The Private Insurance Company Perspective," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 1-25, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:30907
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.30907
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nathan D. DeLay & Hayley H. Chouinard & Cory G. Walters & Philip R. Wandschneider, 2020. "The influence of crop insurance agents on coverage choices: The role of agent competition," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(4), pages 623-638, July.
    2. A. Ford Ramsey & Barry K. Goodwin, 2019. "Value-at-Risk and Models of Dependence in the U.S. Federal Crop Insurance Program," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-21, April.
    3. Martin, Steven W. & Barnett, Barry J. & Coble, Keith H., 2001. "Developing And Pricing Precipitation Insurance," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(1), pages 1-14, July.
    4. Fujin Yi & Mengfei Zhou & Yu Yvette Zhang, 2020. "Value of Incorporating ENSO Forecast in Crop Insurance Programs," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(2), pages 439-457, March.
    5. Yong Liu & Alan P. Ker, 2021. "Simultaneous borrowing of information across space and time for pricing insurance contracts: An application to rating crop insurance policies," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(1), pages 231-257, March.
    6. Jesse B. Tack & David Ubilava, 2015. "Climate and agricultural risk: measuring the effect of ENSO on U.S. crop insurance," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(2), pages 245-257, March.
    7. Miguel A. Carriquiry & Walter E. Baethgen, 2016. "Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Agricultural Risk Management: Implications for Insurance Design," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 16-03, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    8. Ubilava, David & holt, Matt, 2013. "El Ni~no southern oscillation and its effects on world vegetable oil prices: assessing asymmetries using smooth transition models," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 57(2), pages 1-25.
    9. Tor N. Tolhurst & Alan P. Ker, 2015. "On Technological Change in Crop Yields," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(1), pages 137-158.
    10. A Ford Ramsey, 2020. "Probability Distributions of Crop Yields: A Bayesian Spatial Quantile Regression Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(1), pages 220-239, January.
    11. Alberto Garrido & David Zilberman, 2008. "Revisiting the demand for agricultural insurance: the case of Spain," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 68(1), pages 43-66, May.
    12. Keith H. Coble & Robert Dismukes & Joseph W. Glauber, 2007. "Private Crop Insurers and the Reinsurance Fund Allocation Decision," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(3), pages 582-595.
    13. Christopher N. Boyer & B. Wade Brorsen & Emmanuel Tumusiime, 2015. "Modeling skewness with the linear stochastic plateau model to determine optimal nitrogen rates," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(1), pages 1-10, January.
    14. Carriquiry, Miguel A. & Osgood, Daniel E., 2006. "Index Insurance, Production Practices, and Probabilistic Climate Forecasts," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21463, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    15. Liu, Y. & Ker, A., 2018. "Is There Too Much History in Historical Yield Data," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277293, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Yong Liu & A. Ford Ramsey, 2023. "Incorporating historical weather information in crop insurance rating," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(2), pages 546-575, March.
    17. Ker, Alan P. & Ergun, A. Tolga, 2003. "On The Revelation Of Asymmetric Information Of The Private Insurance Companies In The Us Crop Insurance Program," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 21898, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    18. Chen, Shu-Ling, 2011. "Modeling Temperature Dynamics for Aquaculture Index Insurance In Taiwan: A Nonlinear Quantile Approach," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 104229, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    19. Ker, Alan. P & Tolhurst, Tor & Liu, Yong, 2015. "Rating Area-yield Crop Insurance Contracts Using Bayesian Model Averaging and Mixture Models," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205211, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. Deryugina, Tatyana, 2012. "Does Selection in Insurance Markets Always Favor Buyers?," MPRA Paper 53583, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Shaik, Saleem & Coble, Keith H. & Knight, Thomas O., 2005. "Revenue Crop Insurance Demand," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19319, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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