Bio-ethanol Production from Wheat in the Winter Rainfall Region of South Africa: A Quantitative Risk Analysis
AbstractContrary to developments in other parts of the world, South Africa has not developed a bio-ethanol industry. The objective was to quantify the risks and economic viability of a wheat based bio-ethanol plant in the winter rainfall region of South Africa. Monte Carlo simulation of a bio-ethanol plant was used to quantify the risk that investors will likely face. Under the Base scenario a 103 million liter bio-ethanol plant would not offer a reasonable chance of being economically viable. Alternative price enhancing policies were analyzed to determine policy changes needed to make a bio-ethanol plant economically viable in the region.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by International Food and Agribusiness Management Association (IAMA) in its journal International Food and Agribusiness Management Review.
Volume (Year): 10 (2007)
Issue (Month): 02 ()
biofuels; ethanol; risk analysis; simulation; economic viability; Simetar; SERF; Crop Production/Industries; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;
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