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El valor de la flexibilidad en la valoracion de inversiones acuícolas

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  • Sempere, Loreto Pardo
  • Alcaide, Jose Javier Rodriguez
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    Abstract

    Las fuertes inversiones iniciales que son necesarias para comenzar una actividad acuícola, unidas al período tan dilatado del ciclo de explotación y al riesgo que esta actividad comporta, son situaciones que comprometen el futuro de la actividad cuya continuidad pasa necesariamente por la consecución de la viabilidad económica. Por ello, es importante prestar atención a los estudios que justifiquen esta viabilidad económica considerando aspectos tales como la propia flexibilidad operativa o el valor estratégico que tiene cada proyecto de inversión, a menudo considerados factores críticos para la supervivencia. Desde esta perspectiva, se pone de manifiesto la necesidad y la oportunidad de la investigación, basado en la aplicación del método de Opciones Reales a la valoración de proyectos de inversión, método que considera el valor de las opciones estratégicas incluidas en cada proyecto y que son ignoradas en los métodos tradicionales. En concreto se aplica a un proyecto acuícola de inversión de una plataforma de jaulas flotantes para el cultivo de dorada en mar abierto. Tras la elección del modelo de jaula, la inversión fue valorada incorporando el valor de las opciones estratégicas de diferir la inversión o abandonarla según el desarrollo de los acontecimientos en un horizonte temporal de 10 años. Esta valoración permitió concluir que el proyecto es altamente viable, pudiendo considerarse la opción de diferir sólo en el 9º año de análisis, si los años precedentes se presentan siempre desfavorables, siendo su probabilidad muy baja. La opción de abandono no tiene valor en este proyecto de inversión. PALABRAS CLAVE: Acuicultura, Opciones Reales, Riesgo, Flexibilidad operativa. Investigación financiada por el Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología (proyecto ref.: AGL2002-02490.) Dirigir correspondencia a: Loreto Pardo Sempere. e-mail: pa2pasem@uco.es SUMMARY: The loud initial investments that are necessary to start aquaculture activities, united to the so expanded period of the cycle of production and to the risk that this activity entails, are situations that appoint the future of the activity whose continuity requires necessarily of its economic viability. For it, it is important to pay attention to those studies that justify this economic viability capturing important aspects such like the managerial flexibility or the strategic value embedded in each project of investment, often perceived as critical success factors. From this perspective, it shows the need and the opportunity of this investigation, based on the application of Real Options method to value projects, considering the value of the strategic options embedded in them and that traditional discounted cash flow models does not capture. In short it is applied to a project of investment in a sea bream Sparus aurata offshore fish farm. After the election of the model of cage, the project was valued considering the strategic options to delay or abandon the project according to the events along 10 years. This valuation allowed concluding that the project is highly viable, considering the option to delay from only upon the 9th year analysis, if the preceding years are always unfavourable, being its probability very low. The option to abandon does not have value in this project of investment.

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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28786
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists in its journal Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales.

    Volume (Year): 05 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 10 ()
    Pages:

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    Handle: RePEc:ags:earnsa:28786

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    Related research

    Keywords: Aquaculture; Real Options; Risk; Flexibility in operations; Risk and Uncertainty; B41; C15; D81;

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    1. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
    2. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
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