Comparative Research on Prediction Model of China's Urban-rural Residents' Income Gap
AbstractBy using the data concerning China's urban-rural residents' income gap from 1978 to 2010, this paper mainly researches the application of several kinds of models in predicting China's urban-rural residents' income gap. By conducting empirical analysis, we establish ARIMA prediction model, grey prediction model and quadratic-polynomial prediction model and conduct accuracy comparison. The results show that quadratic-polynomial prediction model has excellent fitting effect. By using quadratic- polynomial prediction model, this paper conducts prediction on trend of China's urban-rural residents' income gap from 2011 to 2013, and the prediction value of income gap of urban-rural residents in China from 2011 to 2013 is 14 173.20, 15 212.92 and 16 289.67 yuan respectively. Finally, on the basis of analysis, corresponding countermeasures are put forward, in order to provide scientific basis for energy planning and policy formulation: first, strengthen governments function of public service, coordinate resources, and strive to provide an equal opportunity of development for social members, so as to promote people's welfare and promote social equality; second, breach industrial monopoly and bridge income gap between employees in monopoly industry and general industry; last but not the least, support, encourage and call for government to establish social relief fund, adjust residents' income distribution from the non-governmental perspective, and endeavor to promote the income level of low-income class.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by USA-China Science and Culture Media Corporation in its journal Asian Agricultural Research.
Volume (Year): 03 (2011)
Issue (Month): 05 (May)
Contact details of provider:
Urban-rural residentsâ€™ income gap; ARIMA model; Grey prediction model; Quadratic- polynomial model; China; Agribusiness;
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.