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Entry, Exit, and Structural Change in Pennsylvania's Dairy Sector

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  • Stokes, Jeffrey R.

Abstract

Data on the number of Pennsylvania dairy farms by size category are analyzed in a Markov chain setting to determine factors affecting entry, exit, expansion, and contraction within the sector. Milk prices, milk price volatility, land prices, policy, and cow productivity all impact structural change in Pennsylvania's dairy sector. Stochastic simulation analysis suggests that the number of dairy farms in Pennsylvania will likely fall by only 2.0 percent to 2.5 percent annually over the next 20 years, indicating that dairy farming in Pennsylvania is likely to be a significant enterprise for the state in the foreseeable future.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10218
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association in its journal Agricultural and Resource Economics Review.

Volume (Year): 35 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (October)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:arerjl:10218

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Web page: http://www.narea.org/
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Related research

Keywords: dairy; maximum entropy; farm size; Markov chain; simulation; Farm Management; Industrial Organization;

References

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  1. Tauer, Loren W., 2006. "When to Get In and Out of Dairy Farming: A Real Option Analysis," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 35(2), October.
  2. Disney, W. Terry & Duffy, Patricia A. & Hardy, William E., Jr., 1988. "A Markov Chain Analysis Of Pork Farm Size Distributions In The South," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 20(02), December.
  3. Rahelizatovo, Noro C. & Gillespie, Jeffrey M., 1999. "Dairy Farm Size, Entry, And Exit In A Declining Production Region," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(02), August.
  4. Christopher A. Wolf & Daniel A. Sumner, 2001. "Are Farm Size Distributions Bimodal? Evidence from Kernel Density Estimates of Dairy Farm Size Distributions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(1), pages 77-88.
  5. Chan, M W Luke, 1981. "A Markovian Approach to the Study of the Canadian Cattle Industry," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(1), pages 107-16, February.
  6. Ethridge, Don E. & Roy, Sujit K. & Myers, David W., 1985. "A Markov Chain Analysis Of Structural Changes In The Texas High Plains Cotton Ginning Industry," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(02), December.
  7. Golan, Amos & Judge, George G. & Miller, Douglas, 1996. "Maximum Entropy Econometrics," Staff General Research Papers 1488, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  8. Jeffrey M. Gillespie & Joan R. Fulton, 2001. "A Markov chain analysis of the size of hog production firms in the United States," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 557-570.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Huettel, Silke & Jongeneel, Roelof A., 2008. "Structural Change in the Dairy Sectors of Germany and The Netherlands - A Markov Chain Analysis," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 43659, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  2. Piet, Laurent, 2011. "Assessing structural change in agriculture with a parametric Markov chain model. Illustrative applications to EU-15 and the USA," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114668, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  3. Tubetov, Dulat & Musshoff, Oliver & Kellner, Ulla, 0. "Investments in Kazakhstani Dairy Farming: A Comparison of Classical Investment Theory and the Real Options Approach," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, vol. 51.
  4. Piet, Laurent, 2008. "The evolution of farm size distribution: revisiting the Markov chain model," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44269, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  5. Huettel, Silke & Jongeneel, Roelof A., 2009. "Impact of the EU Milk Quota on Structural Change in the Dairy Sectors of Germany and The Netherlands," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 50943, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  6. Zier, Patrick, 2013. "Econometric impact assessment of the Common Agricultural Policy in East German agriculture," Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Central and Eastern Europe, Leib­niz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO), volume 71, number 71.
  7. Mosnier, Claire & Wieck, Christine, 2010. "Determinants of spatial dynamics of dairy production: a review," Discussion Papers 162896, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
  8. Mikkel Bojesen & Hans Skov-Petersen & Morten Gylling, 2013. "Forecasting the potential of Danish biogas production: spatial representation of Markov chains," IFRO Working Paper 2013/16, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
  9. Zimmermann, Andrea & Heckelei, Thomas, 2012. "Differences of farm structural change across European regions," Discussion Papers 162879, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.

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