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Welfare Implications Of More Accurate Rational Forecast Prices

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Author Info

  • Freebairn, John W.

Abstract

Models are constructed to assess the welfare effects for producers, consumers and society of producers using forecast prices based on more accurate estimates of variables causing shifts in the demand for and supply of commodities. The basic model is a stochastic cobweb model in which producers' forecast price is the rational forecast price. The model is extended for many commodities, for partial producer response to more accurate forecast prices, and to include stock holding. In terms of economic surplus, producers and consumers gain from more accurate estimates of demand shift variables, producers gain and consumers lose from more accurate estimates of supply shift variables, and in both cases there is a net society gain.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/22685
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society in its journal Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 20 (1976)
Issue (Month): 02 (August)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:ajaeau:22685

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Postal: AARES Central Office Manager, Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU, Canberra ACT 0200
Phone: 0409 032 338
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Web page: http://www.aares.info/
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Related research

Keywords: Demand and Price Analysis;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ryan, Jim, 2002. "Assessing the impact of food policy research: rice trade policies in Viet Nam," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-29, February.
  2. Norton, George W., 1987. "Evaluating Social Science Research in Agriculture," Evaluating Agricultural Research and Productivity, Proceedings of a Workshop, Atlanta, Georgia, January 29-30, 1987, Miscellaneous Publication 52 50028, University of Minnesota, Agricultural Experiment Station.
  3. Lindner, Robert K., 1987. "Toward A Framework For Evaluating Agricultural Economics Research," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 31(02), August.
  4. Norton, George W. & Schuh, G. Edward, 1980. "Evaluating Returns to Social Science Research: Issues and Possible Methods," Evaluation of Agricultural Research, Proceedings of a Workshop, Minneapolis, MN, May 12-13, 1980, Miscellaneous Publication 8 49076, University of Minnesota, Agricultural Experiment Station.
  5. Byerlee, Derek R. & Anderson, Jock R., 1982. "Risk, Utility and the Value of Information in Farmer Decision Making," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 50(03), December.
  6. Gardner, Bruce L., 1999. "Returns to policy-related social science research in agriculture:," Impact assessments 9, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  7. Schimmelpfennig, David E. & Norton, George W., 2000. "What Value Is Agricultural Economics Research?," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21773, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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