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The potential impact of the Doha Development Agenda on the South African economy: liberalising OECD agriculture and food trade

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  • Nyhodo, Bonani
  • Punt, Cecilia
  • Vink, Nick

Abstract

This article reports the results of a static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model on the possible liberalisation of agriculture and food trade in the OECD countries. Liberalisation of trade was simulated assuming a reduction in import tariffs, the tax rate on factor use and export subsidies in four steps of 25% points each. Such simulations were run in the GLOBE model then adjusted and used as a policy shock to the PROVIDE model. The results show that the weighed average world price (adjusted) changes will range between -19.6 to +3.8% for imports and between -3.0 and +29.7% for exports at 75% liberalisation. The results from the single country CGE model show that the South African economy would respond positively to the world price changes, with government and macro variables showing minimal but positive responses. Household consumption expenditures generally show positive changes, implying increased factor incomes. Not all sectors will be positively affected even though the overall effect is positive.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49288
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA) in its journal Agrekon.

Volume (Year): 48 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:agreko:49288

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Web page: http://www.aeasa.org.za/
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Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy;

References

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  1. Thomas W. Hertel & Roman Keeney & Maros Ivanic & L. Alan Winters, 2009. "Why Isn't the Doha Development Agenda more Poverty Friendly?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 543-559, November.
  2. Diao, Xinshen & Diaz-Bonilla, Eugenio & Robinson, Sherman & Orden, David, 2005. "Tell me where it hurts, an' I'll tell you who to call," MTID discussion papers 84, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  3. Jean-Christophe Bureau & Sébastien Jean, Alan Matthews, 2005. "The consequences of agricultural trade liberalization for developing countries: distinguishing between genuine benefits and false hopes," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp073, IIIS.
  4. Facchini Giovanni & Willmann Gerald, 2001. "Pareto Gains from Trade," Economia politica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 207-216.
  5. Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2006. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6889, January.
  6. John C. Beghin & Ataman Aksoy, 2003. "Agricultural Trade and the Doha Round: Lessons from Commodity Studies," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications 03-bp42, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University.
  7. James A. Brander & Barbara J. Spencer, 1984. "Export Subsidies and International Market Share Rivalry," NBER Working Papers 1464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Mehdi SHAFAEDDIN, 2001. "Free Trade Or Fair Trade? An Enquiry Into The Causes Of Failure In Recent Trade Negotiations," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 153, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  9. van Schoor, Melt & Punt, Cecilia & McDonald, Scott, 2006. "Compiling National, Multiregional and Regional Social Accounting Matrices for South Africa," Technical Paper Series 58067, PROVIDE Project.
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