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The interdependence between energy consumption and economic growth in the Polish economy in the last decade

Author

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  • Henryk Gurgul

    (AGH University of Science and Technology in Cracow, Department of Applications of Mathematics in Economics)

  • Lukasz Lach

    (AGH University of Science and Technology in Cracow, Department of Applications of Mathematics in Economics)

Abstract

The main aim of this contribution is an analysis of the causal relationship between the total energy consumption in the Polish economy and GDP. In order to assure the correetness of computations a third variable - employment - was included in the dataset. Calculations performed on the basis of quarterly data for the period Q1 2000 to Q4 2009 by means of recent econometric techniques indicated the existence of a significant causal relation running from total energy consumption to GDP In addition, some other causalities between employment and GDP for short- and long-run term were detected, which provided a basis for claiming that changes of energy use in Poland are related in the sense of Granger causality to the employment. Because of the relatively small dataset and possible problems with the proper application of asymptotic methods, we additionally applied bootstrap critical values. The results of both methods were generally in line with each other. The results have important policy implications. The statistically significant causality from energy consumption to GDP means that energy is a very important factor in economic growth and therefore that energy policy in Poland cannot be neutral with respect to GDP growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Henryk Gurgul & Lukasz Lach, 2011. "The interdependence between energy consumption and economic growth in the Polish economy in the last decade," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 9, pages 25-48.
    • Handle: RePEc:agh:journl:v:9:y:2011:p:25-48
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika, 2014. "Energy consumption and economic growth in the light of meeting the targets of energy policy in the EU: The bootstrap panel Granger causality approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 118-129.
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    4. Monika Papiez & Slawomir Smiech, 2013. "Economic Growth and Energy Consumption in Post-Communist Countries: a Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Analysis," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 13, pages 51-68.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; energy consumption; linear Granger causality; nonlinear Granger causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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