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Southern African Economic Integration: Evidence from an Augmented Gravity Model

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  • Moshi Optat Herman
  • Kirsten Wandschneider
  • Thierry Warin
  • Phanindra Wunnava

    ()
    (Middlebury College, USA)

Abstract

This paper investigates the feasibility of creating a common-currency union consisting of 16 countries in Southern Africa. We estimate an augmented-gravity model that includes public deficit, public debt, public expenditure, inflation, and the foreign reserves position. We also integrate Africa-specific variables such as existing economic blocs in the region, colonial heritage, and the convergence of living standards. Our analysis shows that the prospect for further integration in Southern Africa is promising, but many challenges still persist. The existing economic blocs can provide a first stepping stone to a larger currency union, but countries continuously have to cultivate good governance and fiscal discipline.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Africagrowth Institute in its journal African Finance Journal.

Volume (Year): 13 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1-13

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Handle: RePEc:afj:journl:v:13:y:2011:i:1:p:1-13

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Related research

Keywords: optimum currency area; gravity model; Southern African integration; endogenous optimum currency area theory;

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References

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  1. Mkenda, Beatrice Kalinda, 2001. "Is East Africa an Optimum Currency Area?," Working Papers in Economics 41, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  2. Cobham, David & Robson, Peter, 1994. "Monetary integration in Africa: A deliberately European perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 285-299, March.
  3. Frankel, Jeffrey & Rose, Andrew K., 2001. "An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income," Working Paper Series rwp01-013, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  4. Thierry Warin, 2005. "The Hidden Structural Features of the Fiscal Rule: A European Saga," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 29-38, March.
  5. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. John Anyanwu, 2003. "Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Unions: The Case of Trade and Output," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 15(2‐3), pages 126-145.
  7. Bhargava, A & Franzini, L & Narendranathan, W, 1982. "Serial Correlation and the Fixed Effects Model," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(4), pages 533-49, October.
  8. Baltagi, Badi H. & Wu, Ping X., 1999. "Unequally Spaced Panel Data Regressions With Ar(1) Disturbances," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(06), pages 814-823, December.
  9. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Maylis Coupet, 2005. "On the Adequacy of Monetary Arrangements in Sub-Saharan Africa," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 349-373, 03.
  10. Warin, Thierry & Wunnava, Phanindra V. & Janicki, Hubert, 2008. "Testing Mundell's Intuition of Endogenous OCA Theory," IZA Discussion Papers 3739, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  11. Mamadou Wane & Paul Burkett & Robert Guell, 1996. "Economic growth and monetary union in sub-Saharan Africa: new evidence on the effects of CFA-zone membership," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(12), pages 769-773.
  12. Bayoumi, Tamim & Ostry, Jonathan D, 1997. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Trade Flows within Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for Optimum Currency Arrangements," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 6(3), pages 412-44, October.
  13. Guillaume, Dominique M. & Stasavage, David, 2000. "Improving Policy Credibility: Is There a Case for African Monetary Unions?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1391-1407, August.
  14. Padamja Khandelwal, 2004. "Comesa and Sadc," IMF Working Papers 04/227, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Afesorgbor, Sylvanus Kwaku & van Bergeijk, Peter A.G., 2011. "Multi-membership and effectiveness of regional trade agreements in Western and Southern Africa: a comparative study of ECOWAS and SADC," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2011 1, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.

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