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The effects of unification: markets, policy, and cyclical convergence in Italy, 1861–1913

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  • Carlo Ciccarelli

    ()
    (Facoltà di Economia, Università di Roma “Tor Vergata”, Rome, Italy)

  • Stefano Fenoaltea

    (Facoltà di Economia, Università di Roma “Tor Vergata”, Rome, Italy)

  • Tommaso Proietti

    (Facoltà di Economia, Università di Roma “Tor Vergata”, Rome, Italy)

Abstract

This paper uses time-series evidence on construction movements to examine the convergence of regional business cycles in the decades that followed Italy’s unification. The aggregate series point to cyclical convergence, but a sector-level analysis traces this result to the decline in differentiated “regional-policy” shocks. The regional market cycles diverged, as regions specialized in different sectors of production; market-cycle convergence is observed only within the “industrial triangle,” the regions of which also developed different specializations. This suggests that the balance between growing interdependence and growing differentiation is not general, as the current literature presumes, but specialization-specific.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC) in its journal Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History.

Volume (Year): 4 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (October)
Pages: 269-292

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Handle: RePEc:afc:cliome:v:4:y:2010:i:3:p:269-292

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Keywords: Unification; Regions; Specialization; Business cycles;

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References

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  1. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2008. "Have the Eurozone economies converged on a common European cycle?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 71-101, July.
  2. Federico, Giovanni, 2007. "Market integration and market efficiency: The case of 19th century Italy," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-316, April.
  3. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Macroeconomics 9907006, EconWPA.
  4. Ansgar Belke & Jens Michael Heine, 2002. "Specialisation Patterns and the Synchronicity of Regional Employment Cycles in Europe," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 210/2002, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
  5. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2001. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198523543, October.
  6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05.
  7. Maravall, A. & del Rio, A., 2007. "Temporal aggregation, systematic sampling, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 975-998, October.
  8. Carlo Ciccarelli & Stefano Fenoaltea, 2008. "Construction in Italy's Regions, 1861-1913," CEIS Research Paper 136, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 03 Dec 2008.
  9. Lourdes Montoya & Jakob Haan, 2008. "Regional business cycle synchronization in Europe?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 123-137, July.
  10. Ciccarelli, Carlo & Fenoaltea, Stefano, 2007. "Business fluctuations in Italy, 1861-1913: The new evidence," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 432-451, July.
  11. Conte, Leandro & Toniolo, Gianni & Vecchi, Giovanni, 2003. "Monetary Union, Institutions and Financial Market Integration, Italy 1862-1905," CEPR Discussion Papers 3684, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Fenoaltea, Stefano, 2003. "Peeking Backward: Regional Aspects of Industrial Growth in Post-Unification Italy," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 63(04), pages 1059-1102, December.
  13. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
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Cited by:
  1. Emanuele Felice, 2011. "The Rule and the Exception: Italy’s Regional Imbalances (1891-2001) through a Shift-Share Analysis," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 4, December.
  2. Emanuele Felice, 2012. "Regional convergence in Italy, 1891–2001: testing human and social capital," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 6(3), pages 267-306, October.
  3. Makiko Hino & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2014. "Catching up and falling behind in technological progress: the experience of the textile and chemical industries in Italy between 1904 and 1937," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 14-14, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
  4. Emanuele Felice, 2014. "GDP and convergence in modern times," Working Papers 01-14, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).

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