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On the Accuracy of RAS Method in an Emergent Economy

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  • Emilian Dobrescu

    ()
    (Center of Macroeconomic Modelling, Romanian Academy, Bucharest, Romania)

  • Viorel Gaftea

    (Center of Macroeconomic Modelling, Romanian Academy, Bucharest, Romania)

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to check the applicability of RAS procedure (in its conventional definition) on statistical series of an emergent economy, as the Romanian one. As it is known, during transition from centrally planned system to market mechanisms, the society passes through deep restructuration, consisting in complex institutional changes, technological shifts, sectoral reallocation of productive factors, which continuously affected the input-output technical coefficients. Testing the RAS algorithm on such a volatile framework is a notable search challenge. Our empirical experiment is based on annual input-output tables for two decades (1989- 2008). In order to easier manipulate the available data base, the extended classification of economic activities containing 105 branches has been aggregated into 10 sectors. For each year, two (10x10) matrices: aij (statistically recorded technical coefficients) and raij (the same coefficients estimated using RAS method) were computed. The paper is organized in three sections. The first discusses several methodological issues of this algorithm. It also evaluates the differences between matrices aij and raij, involving both categories of accuracy measures - either the “cell-by-cell” comparison or the aggregated indicators. The second section extensively examines these measures, the presentation being systematized sectorally. Such an approach allows revealing specificities of different branches in their inter-industry co-operation. The third section sketches an overview of the obtained results and extracts some conclusions related to the problems that arise in the application of RAS method.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania in its journal The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal.

Volume (Year): 14 (2012)
Issue (Month): 32 (June)
Pages: 502-521

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Handle: RePEc:aes:amfeco:v:14:y:2012:i:32:p:502-521

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Keywords: input-output; technical coefficient; RAS;

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References

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  1. Randall Jackson & Alan Murray, 2004. "Alternative Input-Output Matrix Updating Formulations," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 135-148.
  2. Emilian Dobrescu, 2009. "Estimating the Total Factor Productivity in Romanian Economy," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 11(26), pages 512-521, June.
  3. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2009. "Measuring the Interaction of Structural Changes with Inflation," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(5), pages 5-99.
  4. Dobrescu, Emilian & Gaftea, Viorel & Scutaru, Cornelia, 2010. "Using the Leontief Matrix to Estimate the Impact of Investments upon the Global Output," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 176-187, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2013. "Restatement of the I-O Coefficient Stability Problem," Working Papers of Macroeconomic Modelling Seminar 132601, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
  2. Florin-Marius PAVELESCU, 2012. "Fluctuation Of Economic Activity, Sectoral Distribution Of Gross Value Added And The Size Of Backward Multipliers In Romania During The Period 1989-2009," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 35(2(44)), pages 88-112, December.
  3. Emilian Dobrescu, 2014. "A Hybrid Forecasting Approach," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(35), pages 390, February.
  4. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2012. "Restatement of the I-O Coefficient Stability Problem," MPRA Paper 48567, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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