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The Impact of High Oil Prices on Global and Regional Natural Gas and LNG Markets

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  • Justine Barden, William Pepper, Vineet Aggarwal

Abstract

Oil prices are notoriously hard to predict, but they are an important input in many energy and economic models. This paper explores the effects of different oil price assumptions on natural gas markets (production, consumption, prices in different regions) in the International Natural Gas Model (INGM). Three cases from the INGM are presented: a reference case, a high oil price case and a second high oil price case, where gas-to-liquids (GTL) capacity additions are constrained. The results show that regardless of constraints on GTL capacity additions, higher oil prices lead to higher production and consumption of natural gas. However, when GTL capacity is allowed to expand, higher oil prices generally lead to higher natural gas prices and to less gas consumption in the electric power and industrial sectors as they switch to cheaper fuels and more natural gas is diverted to the production of GTLs.

Suggested Citation

  • Justine Barden, William Pepper, Vineet Aggarwal, 2009. "The Impact of High Oil Prices on Global and Regional Natural Gas and LNG Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 55-72.
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:hh-se-a05
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    Cited by:

    1. Shi, Xunpeng & Variam, Hari M.P., 2017. "East Asia’s gas-market failure and distinctive economics—A case study of low oil prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 800-809.
    2. Paltsev, Sergey & Jacoby, Henry D. & Reilly, John M. & Ejaz, Qudsia J. & Morris, Jennifer & O'Sullivan, Francis & Rausch, Sebastian & Winchester, Niven & Kragha, Oghenerume, 2011. "The future of U.S. natural gas production, use, and trade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5309-5321, September.
    3. Alexios Skarakis & Athanasios Dagoumas, 2017. "An Optimization Model of the European Natural Gas System," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(6), pages 48-60.
    4. Vitor Miguel Ribeiro & Gustavo Soutinho & Isabel Soares, 2023. "Natural Gas Prices in the Framework of European Union’s Energy Transition: Assessing Evolution and Drivers," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-46, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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