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The Economics of a Lost Deal: Kyoto - The Hague - Marrakesh

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  • Jean-Charles Hourcade
  • Frederic Ghersi

Abstract

This paper examines prospects for compromise between competing perspectives on four key climate change issues: costs, level of domestic action, environmental integrity, and developing world involvement. It focuses on the policy issues stemming from uncertainty about abatement costs. Based on extensive simulations of a model integration tool, SAP12 (Stochastic Assessment of Climate Policies, 12 models), the analysis considers options for fine-tuning the Kyoto Protocol, such as concrete ceilings or levies on carbon imports; "environmental restoration payments" to be made on excess emissions; and credits for sequestration activities in Annex B countries. It demonstrates that a restoration payment (implemented through a safety valve) emerges as a superior means of addressing the cost uncertainty issue. The paper concludes that had this approach been taken at the COP6 climate negotiations in The Hague, there would have been substantial room for compromise on payments of $35 to $100 per ton of carbon. Examining the Marrakesh (COP7) climate accord, it derives some lessons for attempts at completing Kyoto's unfinished business or at moving on to a new framework.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by International Association for Energy Economics in its journal The Energy Journal.

Volume (Year): Volume23 (2002)
Issue (Month): Number 3 ()
Pages: 1-26

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Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:2002v23-03-a01

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Cited by:
  1. repec:hal:ciredw:hal-00866434 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00866433 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. J. Hourcade & B. Perrissin Fabert & J. Rozenberg, 2012. "Venturing into uncharted financial waters: an essay on climate-friendly finance," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 165-186, May.
  4. Oskar Lecuyer & Philippe Quirion, 2012. "Can Uncertainty Justify Overlapping Policy Instruments to Mitigate Emissions?," Working Papers 2012.91, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  5. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00866440 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. repec:hal:ciredw:halshs-00000965 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. repec:hal:ciredw:hal-00866572 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Franck Lecocq & Jean-Charles Hourcade, 2012. "Unspoken ethical issues in the climate affair: Insights from a theoretical analysis of negotiation mandates," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 445-471, February.
  9. Quirion, Philippe, 2010. "Complying with the Kyoto Protocol under uncertainty: Taxes or tradable permits?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5166-5173, September.
  10. Jean-Charles Hourcade & Sandrine Mathy & P. R. Shukla, 2005. "Cutting the Climate-Development Gordian Knot - Economic options in a politically constrained world," Post-Print halshs-00006358, HAL.
  11. repec:hal:ciredw:hal-00866433 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00866572 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. repec:hal:ciredw:hal-00866440 is not listed on IDEAS

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