Energy Intensity and Carbon Emission Responses to Technological Change: The U.S. Outlook
AbstractTechnological progress, energy use, energy intensity, and carbon mitigation are tightly intertwined concepts within the worldwide climate change debate. The state-of-the-art National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is used to examine, for the United States: (a) the potential role of technological progress on energy supply, consumption, and prices in U.S. energy markets and their impact on carbon emissions; (b) how "success" on one side of the supply or demand equation may reduce the potential benefits of technological progress on the other side; and (c) the sensitivity of energy intensity in the U.S. to technological change and adoption. Some of the key findings of the analysis include: (a) technological progress alone (without significant and effective new policies) is insufficient to achieve reduction of carbon emissions at or near 1990 levels by 2010; (b) successful R&D programs that improve the availability and market acceptance of cost-efficient transportation technologies, coupled with successful oil and gas supply R&D programs, could have a significant impact on reducing U.S. dependence on imported oil; (c) the annual rate of decline of energy intensity (primary energy used per dollar of GDP) between 1996 and 2015 appears to be bounded by 1.25 percent when real energy prices are relatively stable or gradually rising, even when more advanced technologies are made available to the market.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by International Association for Energy Economics in its journal The Energy Journal.
Volume (Year): Volume20 (1999)
Issue (Month): Number 3 ()
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F0 - International Economics - - General
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Webster, Mort & Paltsev, Sergey & Reilly, John, 2008. "Autonomous efficiency improvement or income elasticity of energy demand: Does it matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2785-2798, November.
- Laitner, J. A. & DeCanio, S. J. & Koomey, J. G. & Sanstad, A. H., 2003. "Room for improvement: increasing the value of energy modeling for policy analysis," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 87-94, June.
- Auffhammer, Maximilian, 2005.
"The rationality of EIA forecasts under symmetric and asymmetric loss,"
CUDARE Working Paper Series
1009, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy.
- Auffhammer, Maximilian, 2007. "The rationality of EIA forecasts under symmetric and asymmetric loss," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 102-121, May.
- Auffhammer, Maximilian, 2005. "The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt2ts415ts, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (David Williams).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.