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Risk Premiums and Efficiency in the Market for Crude Oil Futures

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  • Richard Deaves
  • Itzhak Krinsky

Abstract

The New York Mercantile Exchange's Crude Oil futures contract is investigated for the existence and nature of risk premiums and informational efficiency. During 1983-90, there is some evidence that short-term premiums were positive and covaried with recent volatility. As for efficiency, we find nothing inconsistent with weak-form efficiency, but some apparent violations cf semi-strong efficiency. We argue that, for a number of reasons, such rejections should be interpreted with caution.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Deaves & Itzhak Krinsky, 1992. "Risk Premiums and Efficiency in the Market for Crude Oil Futures," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 93-118.
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:1992v13-02-a05
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    Cited by:

    1. Kanamura, Takashi, 2009. "A supply and demand based volatility model for energy prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 736-747, September.
    2. Christiane Baumeister, 2021. "Measuring Market Expectations," Working Papers 202163, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Herbert, John H, 1995. "Trading volume, maturity and natural gas futures price volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 293-299, October.
    4. Plourde, A. & Watkins, G.C., 1993. "Crude Oil Prices: How Volatile in relation to Other Commodities?," Working Papers 9304e, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    5. Plourde, André & Watkins, G. C., 1998. "Crude oil prices between 1985 and 1994: how volatile in relation to other commodities?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 245-262, September.
    6. Michael S. Haigh & Matthew T. Holt, 2002. "Crack spread hedging: accounting for time-varying volatility spillovers in the energy futures markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 269-289.
    7. Deaves, Richard & Charupat, Narat, 2002. "Backwardation and Normal Backwardation in Energy Futures Markets: With an Application to Metallgesellschaft's Short-Dated Rollover Hedging of Long-Term Contracts," ZEW Discussion Papers 02-59, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    8. Apostolos Serletis & Asghar Shahmoradi, 2007. "Returns and Volatility in the NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Market," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 15, pages 193-204, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Maryam Movahedifar & Hossein Hassani & Masoud Yarmohammadi & Mahdi Kalantari & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "A robust approach for outlier imputation: Singular Spectrum Decomposition," Working Papers 202164, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    10. Sadorsky, Perry, 2002. "Time-varying risk premiums in petroleum futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 539-556, November.
    11. Bisht Deepak & Laha, A. K., 2017. "Assessment of Density Forecast for Energy Commodities in Post-Financialization Era," IIMA Working Papers WP 2017-07-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    12. Nikkinen, Jussi & Rothovius, Timo, 2019. "The EIA WPSR release, OVX and crude oil internet interest," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 131-141.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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