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Impacts of Crisis Events on International Tourism Demand in Thailand (in Thai)

Author

Listed:
  • Akarapong Untong

    (Public Policy Studies Institute, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand)

  • Vicente Ramos

    (Department of Applied Economics, University of the Balearic Islands, Palma de Mallorca, Spain)

  • Javier Rey-Maquieira

    (Department of Applied Economics, University of the Balearic Islands, Palma de Mallorca, Spain)

  • Mingsarn Kaosa-ard

    (Public Policy Studies Institute, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand)

Abstract

This study assesses the impacts of nine major crisis events during 2001-2009 on the declining number of foreign tourists in Thailand. The SARIMA with intervention models and X-12-ARIMA are applied. The results show that each of the crises gave different effects on the number of tourists depending on the duration of situation, type of crisis, and country of origin. The impacts from the disease outbreaks were greater than those from other crises, but the degrees of impacts are likely to decrease if the similar outbreaks occur. In contrast, the impact from the internal political chaos was relatively small for its first time crisis, but it will be greater if it happens again. The Tsunami gave a big impact but the recovery rate was faster than that of other crises. The 9/11 event had made a minimal impact on Thai tourism. Based on the results, it is suggested that solving the internal politics should be the first priority if it aims to enhance Thailand’s tourism industry. In addition, the measures used for solving crises should be designed to fit with each of foreign tourist markets’ diverse responsiveness.

Suggested Citation

  • Akarapong Untong & Vicente Ramos & Javier Rey-Maquieira & Mingsarn Kaosa-ard, 2011. "Impacts of Crisis Events on International Tourism Demand in Thailand (in Thai)," Applied Economics Journal, Kasetsart University, Faculty of Economics, Center for Applied Economic Research, vol. 18(2), pages 45-64, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:aej:apecjn:v:18:y:2011:i:2:p:45-64
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    Cited by:

    1. Akarapong Untong & Vicente Ramos & Mingsarn Kaosa-Ard & Javier Rey-Maquieira, 2015. "Tourism Demand Analysis of Chinese Arrivals in Thailand," Tourism Economics, , vol. 21(6), pages 1221-1234, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    crisis events; international tourism demand; SARIMA; intervention models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Other
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C59 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Other

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