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Sharing Demographic Risk--Who Is Afraid of the Baby Bust?

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  • Alexander Ludwig
  • Michael Reiter

Abstract

We model the reaction of a PAYG pension system to demographic shocks. We compare the ex ante first best and second best solution of a Ramsey planner with full commitment to the outcome under simple third best rules. The model is calibrated to the German economy. We find that the German system comes relatively close to the second-best solution, and that the recent baby-boom/baby-bust cycle leads to welfare losses of about 5 percent of lifetime consumption for some cohorts. We argue that it is crucial for all our results to correctly model the labor market distortions arising from the pension system. (JEL D91, E62, H55, J11)

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Journal: Economic Policy.

Volume (Year): 2 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 83-118

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:2:y:2010:i:4:p:83-118

Note: DOI: 10.1257/pol.2.4.83
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Miguel Sánchez Romero, 2011. "The role of demography on per capita output growth and saving rates," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2011-015, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  2. Alan J. Auerbach & Ronald Lee, 2009. "Welfare and Generational Equity in Sustainable Unfunded Pension Systems," NBER Working Papers 14682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Sánchez-Romero, Miguel & Sambt, Jože & Prskawetz, Alexia, 2013. "Quantifying the role of alternative pension reforms on the Austrian economy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 94-114.
  4. Harenberg, Daniel & Ludwig, Alexander, 2014. "Social Security and the Interactions Between Aggregate and Idiosyncratic Risk," MEA discussion paper series 14280, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  5. Gabay, Daniel & Grasselli, Martino, 2012. "Fair demographic risk sharing in defined contribution pension systems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 657-669.
  6. Knell, Markus, 2013. "The Intergenerational Distribution of Demographic Fluctuations in Unfunded and Funded Pension Systems," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79830, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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