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Transfer Payments and the Macroeconomy: The Effects of Social Security Benefit Increases, 1952-1991

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  • Christina D. Romer
  • David H. Romer

Abstract

This paper uses Social Security benefit increases from 1952 to 1991 to investigate the macroeconomic effects of changes in transfers. It finds a large, immediate, and significant positive response of consumption to permanent benefit increases. The response declines after about five months, and does not appear to spread to industrial production or employment. The effects of transfers are faster, but much less persistent and much smaller overall, than those of tax changes. Finally, monetary policy responds strongly to benefit increases but not to tax changes. This may account for the failure of the effects of transfers to persist or spread.

Suggested Citation

  • Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2016. "Transfer Payments and the Macroeconomy: The Effects of Social Security Benefit Increases, 1952-1991," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 1-42, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:8:y:2016:i:4:p:1-42
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.20140348
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    Cited by:

    1. Luigi Marattin & Tommaso Nannicini & Francesco Porcelli, 2022. "Revenue vs expenditure based fiscal consolidation: the pass-through from federal cuts to local taxes," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(4), pages 834-872, August.
    2. Girish Bahal & Anand Shrivastava, 2022. "Fiscal transfers and inflation: evidence from India," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(4), pages 1837-1858, October.
    3. Párraga Rodríguez, Susana, 2018. "The dynamic effects of public expenditure shocks in the United States," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 340-360.
    4. Konstantinou, Panagiotis Th. & Partheniou, Andromachi, 2021. "The Effects of Government Spending Over the Business Cycle: A Disaggregated Analysis for OECD and Non-OECD Countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 809-822.
    5. Valerie A. Ramey, 2019. "Ten Years after the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 89-114, Spring.
    6. Dante Cardoso & Laura Carvalho & Gilberto Tadeu Lima & Luiza Nassif-Pires & Fernando Rugitsky & Marina Sanches, 2023. "The Multiplier Effects of Government Expenditures on Social Protection: A Multi-Country Analysis," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2023_11, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    7. Ernest Dautovic & Harald Hau & Yi Huang, 2017. "The Consumption Response to Minimum Wages: Evidence from Chinese Households," IHEID Working Papers 01-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    8. Gechert, Sebastian & Paetz, Christoph & Villanueva, Paloma, 2021. "The macroeconomic effects of social security contributions and benefits," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 571-584.
    9. Yan Miao & Zheng Li, 2023. "The poverty alleviation effect of transfer payments: evidence from China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
    10. Marina da Silva Sanches & Laura Barbosa de Carvalho, 2023. "Multiplier effects of social protection: a SVAR approach for Brazil," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 93-112, January.
    11. Pedro Bação & Marta Simões, 0. "Is the Welfare State Relevant for Economic Growth? Evidence for Portugal," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 0, pages 1-27.
    12. Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco & Alesina, Alberto & Paradisi, Matteo & Barbiero, Omar, 2017. "The effects of Fiscal Consolidations: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 12016, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Bill Dupor & Guerrero Rodrigo, 2017. "The Aggregate and Relative Economic Effects of Government Financed Health Care," Working Papers 2017-27, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    14. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    15. Susana Párraga Rodríguez, 2023. "The aggregate effects of government income transfers shocks: EU evidence," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-28, March.
    16. Hussain, Syed M. & Liu, Lin, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects of government spending shocks: New narrative evidence from Canada," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    17. Kim, Wongi, 2021. "Macroeconomic effects of government transfer payments: Evidence from Korea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    18. Pappa, Evi & Molteni, Francesco, 2017. "The Combination of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Shocks: A TVP-FAVAR Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 12541, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Girish Bahal, 2020. "Estimating the Impact of Welfare Programs on Agricultural Output: Evidence from India," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(3), pages 982-998, May.
    20. Balazs Zelity, 2020. "Permanent Income Shocks and Inflation," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2020-003, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    21. Pedro Bação & Marta Simões, 2020. "Is the Welfare State Relevant for Economic Growth? Evidence for Portugal," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(3), pages 494-520, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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