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The Possibility of Ideological Bias in Structural Macroeconomic Models

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  • Gilles Saint-Paul

Abstract

An ideologically biased expert faces trade-offs in model design. The perceived model must be autocoherent—its use by all agents delivers a self-confirming equilibrium. Policy may be influenced by manipulating the Keynesian multiplier or the Phillips curve parameters. Ideological bias may arise in a way that resembles well-known historical controversies. A larger reported Keynesian multiplier is favored by more left-wing economists, as is a flatter inflation output trade-off. Some combinations of parameters must be truthfully revealed, illustrating the tight link between parameter identification and the scope for bias that is implied by the autocoherence conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilles Saint-Paul, 2018. "The Possibility of Ideological Bias in Structural Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 216-241, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:10:y:2018:i:1:p:216-41
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.20140154
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    Cited by:

    1. Javdani, Mohsen & Chang, Ha-Joon, 2019. "Who Said or What Said? Estimating Ideological Bias in Views Among Economists," IZA Discussion Papers 12738, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Carsten Hefeker & Michael Neugart, 2019. "Policy Coordination Under Model Disagreement and Uncertainty," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 719-737, September.
    3. Diaf, Sami & Döpke, Jörg & Fritsche, Ulrich & Rockenbach, Ida, 2022. "Sharks and minnows in a shoal of words: Measuring latent ideological positions based on text mining techniques," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    4. Asatryan, Zareh & Havlik, Annika & Heinemann, Friedrich & Nover, Justus, 2020. "Biases in fiscal multiplier estimates," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • A11 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Role of Economics; Role of Economists
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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