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Les déséquilibres externes des Etats-Unis conduisent-ils à des asymétries au sein de l'Union Economique et Monétaire ?


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  • Aurélien EYQUEM


This paper investigates the consequences of US external imbalances on European economies using a three-country dynamics general equilibrium model. In the model, US external debt is simulated by means of a growth differential together with an exogenous shock on US external borrowing. This realistic level of US external debt is predicted to induce a nominal depreciation of the dollar between 10% and 14% compared to the Euro. symmetries in European trade structures affect the transmission of the shock through the channel of the current account and the real exchange rate, inducing production, consumption and inflation asymmetries among European economies. Their size depends on the relative degree of trade openness against the US. The characteristics of these asymmetries resemble those observed

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Article provided by ENSAE in its journal Annals of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): (2011)
Issue (Month): 103-104 ()
Pages: 223-244

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Handle: RePEc:adr:anecst:y:2011:i:103-104:p:11

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