Désinflation et chômage dans la zone euro : une analyse à l’aide d’un modèle var structurel
Abstract
The present paper investigates the dynamic effects of disinflation shocks for a number of real macroeconomic variables in the euro area. Using structural VARs, we identify disinflation shocks as the only shocks that can exert a long—run effect on inflation as well as other nominal variables cointegrating with inflation. These shocks are found to generate large recessionary effects, notably when it comes to investment, and triggers a persistent rise in unemployment and in the real interest rate. The analysis is complemented by computing inefficiency measures on goods and labor markets. We show that, after a disinflation shock, inefficiencies in the labor market seem to prevail. These conclusions are robust to modifications of our baseline identification scheme.Download Info
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Article provided by ENSAE in its journal Annals of Economics and Statistics.
Volume (Year): (2010)
Issue (Month): 99-100 ()
Pages: 365-394
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Keywords:Other versions of this item:
- Fève, Patrick & Matheron, Julien & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2009. "Désinflation et chômage dans la zone euro: une analyse à l'aide d'un modèle VAR structurel," TSE Working Papers 09-014, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
- Fève, P. & Matheron, J. & Sahuc, J-G., 2009. "Désinflation et chômage dans la zone euro : une analyse à l'aide d'un modèle VAR structurel," Working papers 247, Banque de France.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
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