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Macroeconomic Consequences of Global Endogenous Migration: a General Equilibrium Analysis

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  • Vladimir BORGY
  • Xavier CHOJNICKI
  • Gilles LE GARREC
  • Cyrille SCHWELLNUS

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the consequences of endogenous migration flows over the coming decades in a dynamic general equilibrium model of the world economy. Such an approach has two major benefits. First, it offers a global perspective on the economic consequences of international migration flows by taking into account effects on both the destination and the origin regions. Second, by allowing migration flows to be related to economic fundamentals, they are determined endogenously in the model. We proceed by estimating the determinants of migration in an econometric model and then endogenizing migration flows by introducing the estimated relationships between demographic and income developments in our world model. We show that (i) migration could have a substantial impact on GDP growth in sending and destination regions; (ii) endogenizing migration induces important changes in the volume and the distribution of migration flows between regions compared to the United Nations projections; (iii) the size of these flows, although substantial, will not be sufficient to counteract the impact of population ageing in the receiving regions.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by ENSAE in its journal Annals of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): (2010)
Issue (Month): 97-98 ()
Pages: 13-39

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Handle: RePEc:adr:anecst:y:2010:i:97-98:p:02

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  1. Alexander Ludwig & Dirk Krüger, 2006. "On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare," MEA discussion paper series, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy 06103, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
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  7. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
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  9. Aglietta, Michel & Chateau, Jean & Fayolle, Jacky & Juillard, Michel & Le Cacheux, Jacques & Le Garrec, Gilles & Touze, Vincent, 2007. "Pension reforms in Europe: An investigation with a computable OLG world model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 481-505, May.
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  13. Xavier Chojnicki & Frédéric Docquier & Lionel Ragot, 2005. "L'immigration « choisie » face aux défis économiques du vieillissement démographique," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(6), pages 1359-1384.
  14. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Larry Kotlikoff, 2003. "The Developed World's Demographic Transition - the Roles of Capital Flows, Immigration, and Policy," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series, Boston University - Department of Economics dp-133, Boston University - Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Wilson, E. J. & Jayanthakumaran, K. & Verma, R., 2012. "Demographics, Labor Mobility, and Productivity," ADBI Working Papers, Asian Development Bank Institute 387, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  2. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2012. "The Great Shift: Macroeconomic projections for the world economy at the 2050 horizon," Working Papers, CEPII research center 2012-03, CEPII research center.
  3. Duarte Leite & Óscar Afonso & Sandra Silva, 2014. "A tale of two countries: a directed technical change approach," FEP Working Papers, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto 539, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  4. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2010. "The World Economy in 2050: a Tentative Picture," Working Papers, CEPII research center 2010-27, CEPII research center.
  5. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2014. "The Great Shift : Macroeconomic projections For the World Economy at the 2050 Horizon," Working Papers, HAL hal-00962464, HAL.

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